Next Government will be either NDA or UF but not UPA

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        Political gossip in Capital hots up as election process nearing completion. There is strong rumour that NDA may not emerge victorious with full majority. This might be based on some exit polls came out after completion of four phases. The activity of opposition parties in the Capital signals this rumour. Opposition parties are planning to meet on 21st May to chalk out their strategy. Chandrababu Naidu is playing catalyst role in these efforts. Ram Madhav's interview in Bloomberg ignited this rumour . But it seems that Modi still believes that people will vote him back beyond identity politics. Coming two phases are crucial for BJP as its stakes are high in these two phases. This Hindi heart land decides the fate of Modi. Particularly, the eastern part of the country where his schemes benefited the poor and marginal people much will vote en mass in favour of Modi Government, he believes. At the same time, opposition parties are busy in finalising strategy to claim for formation of Government. This activity made the political pundits to guess that chances of NDA Government are not bright.

       Keeping aside who will win the Government, now talk of the town is about type of Government if opposition wins the election. Contrary to expectations, formation of Government under UPA is totally ruled out. So, it is neither NDA nor UPA but UF kind coalition. Everyone remembers that there are three types of coalition experiments in the country. Why chances are remote for UPA? UPA means coalition under Congress party headed by Rahul Gandhi. Only few constituents like DMK, RJD, NCP may accept Rahul Gandhi as PM. Other major opposition stalwarts like Mamata, Mayavati, Akhilesh will not accept Rahul Gandhi as leader. They claim leadership themselves. Leaders like Chandrababu Naidu, Devagowda may take neutral stand so that they can act as bridge between these claimants. It may help their inner ambitions to emerge as compromising leaders. Even chances of leaders like Naveen Patnaik , KCR are bright in such circumstances. The reason is simple. Congress never accepts strong leaders  like Mamata, Mayavati. Chances for weak candidates as compromising candidates are more. Whoever may be, the coalition if at all materialises will be UF but not UPA.


       So, the choice now is between NDA and UF but not UPA. Even if UF emerges on the basis of results, it will not long last for full term as lot of inner contradictions exists among the coalition partners. As happened in the past, in such circumstances, NDA will re-emerge as strong force in mid-term elections. UF experiments will be temporary.  The prospects of Congress are not hopeful in near future.The following possibilities may occur after elections:

1. Even now, chances of NDA forming next Government are more.

2. If it does not happen, a non-Congress opposition leader will be PM. The coalition will be UF type .

3. Such Government will not long last and mid-term elections will occur.

4. NDA will emerge with more majority in mid-term elections.

5. Congress may undergo leadership change. Priyanka Gandhi may takeover in place of Rahul Gandhi.

            These are certain possibilities. If Modi come back to power, entire scenario will change. Congress will be in deep trouble. The cases against them may reach logical conclusions. BJP may take the fight in West Bengal to the next level in State elections. It will take serious steps to reach South. By 2024, it may emerge as biggest and largest national party. This possibility is also not ruled out. So, 23rd May is game changer for future destiny of Indian politics. Let us eagerly wait for the D Day.


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